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Shashwat Shivam1, Joshua S Weitz2,3,4, Yorai Wardi1

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Vaccine protectionism hinders global access. This study shows that even with a selfish goal of minimizing domestic fatalities, donor countries benefit from sharing COVID-19 vaccines, reducing recipient outbreaks and imported cases.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Global vaccine inequity persists, with limited progress in vaccine sharing despite calls for equitable access.
  • Vaccine protectionism has exacerbated disparities, exemplified by low vaccination rates in Africa as of April 2022 (~20%).
  • Understanding the self-interested benefits of vaccine sharing is crucial for improving global health outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate optimal vaccine-sharing policies from a donor country's perspective, aiming to minimize domestic fatalities.
  • To determine if a self-interested rationale exists for countries with vaccine stockpiles to share with those without.
  • To explore the impact of epidemic coupling and donor vaccination rates on sharing strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Development and analysis of a two-nation coupled epidemic model.
  • Simulation of various epidemic scenarios under different vaccine-sharing policies.
  • Computational evaluation of outcomes based on minimizing fatalities within the donor country.

Main Results:

  • Sharing a significant fraction of vaccine stockpiles is often optimal for donor countries, even with a selfish objective.
  • Vaccine sharing reduces recipient country outbreaks, consequently lowering travel-associated incidence in the donor nation.
  • The benefits of sharing are amplified with lower donor vaccination rates and increased epidemic coupling between nations.

Conclusions:

  • Vaccine sharing offers a self-interested advantage to donor countries by mitigating epidemic spread and reducing overall fatalities.
  • Hybrid sharing policies can significantly decrease recipient fatalities with minimal impact on donor outcomes.
  • Findings provide a compelling, self-interested rationale for nations to engage in vaccine sharing initiatives.