Methods for jurisdictional vulnerability assessment of opioid-related outcomes

In 2020, an estimated 2.7 million people in the US had opioid use disorder, increasing their risk of opioid-related morbidity and mortality. While jurisdictional vulnerability assessments (JVA) of opioid-related outcomes have been conducted previously in the US, there has been no unifying methodological framework. Between 2019 and 2021, we prepared ten JVAs, in collaboration with the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and state public health agencies, to evaluate the risk for opioid-involved overdose (OOD) fatalities and related consequences. Our aim is to share the framework we developed for these ten JVAs, based on our study of the work of Van Handel et al. from 2016, as well as a summary of 18 publicly available assessments of OOD or associated hepatitis C virus infection vulnerability. We developed a three-tiered framework that can be applied by jurisdictions based on the number of units of analysis (e.g., counties, ZIP Codes, census tracts): under 10 (Tier 1), 10 to <50 (Tier 2), and 50 or more (Tier 3). We calculated OOD vulnerability indices based on variable ranks, weighted variable ranks, or multivariable regressions, respectively, for the three tiers. We developed thematic maps, conducted spatial analyses, and visualized service provider locations, drive-time service areas, and service accessibility relative to OOD risk. The methodological framework and examples of our findings from several jurisdictions can be used as a foundation for future assessments and help inform policies to mitigate the impact of the opioid overdose crisis.