Assortative mating for reproductive timing affects population recruitment and resilience in a quantitative genetic...

Quantitative models that simulate the inheritance and evolution of fitness-linked traits offer a method for predicting how environmental or anthropogenic perturbations can affect the dynamics of wild populations. Random mating between individuals within populations is a key assumption of many such models used in conservation and management to predict the impacts of proposed management or conservation actions. However, recent evidence suggests that non-random mating may be underestimated in wild populations and play an important role in diversity-stability relationships. Here we introduce a novel individual-based quantitative genetic model that incorporates assortative mating for reproductive timing, a defining attribute of many aggregate breeding species. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by simulating a generalized salmonid lifecycle, varying input parameters, and comparing model outputs to theoretical expectations for several eco-evolutionary, population dynamic scenarios. Simulations with assortative mating systems resulted in more resilient and productive populations than those that were randomly mating. In accordance with established ecological and evolutionary theory, we also found that decreasing the magnitude of trait correlations, environmental variability, and strength of selection each had a positive effect on population growth. Our model is constructed in a modular framework so that future components can be easily added to address pressing issues such as the effects of supportive breeding, variable age structure, differential selection by sex or age, and fishery interactions on population growth and resilience. With code published in a public Github repository, model outputs may easily be tailored to specific study systems by parameterizing with empirically generated values from long-term ecological monitoring programs.