Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 23, 2026
Feeding of Ticks on Animals for Transmission and Xenodiagnosis in Lyme Disease Research
Published on: August 31, 2013
Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
Heather L Kopsco1, Peg Gronemeyer2, Nohra Mateus-Pinilla1,2
1Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802, USA.
Abstract:
The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970-2000, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.
Insights
Climate change is expanding tick habitats in the U.S. Midwest. This study models future tick distributions in Illinois, highlighting the importance of forests and water for predicting tick-borne disease (TBD) risk.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Climate Change Impact Studies
Background:
- The U.S. Midwest is experiencing significant expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases (TBD).
- Illinois is facing encroachment from both northern and southern tick populations.
- Four medically important tick species are expanding their range: Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and Amblyomma maculatum.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess historical and predict future habitat suitability for four key tick species in Illinois.
- To understand the influence of climate and landscape variables on tick distribution.
- To inform TBD prevention and treatment strategies in a changing climate.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) for four tick species.
- Incorporated landscape (forests, wetlands) and climate variables (temperature, precipitation).
- Modeled habitat suitability for historical (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080) climate scenarios.
Main Results:
- Historical model projections aligned with known tick distributions, though A. maculatum suitability was overestimated.
- Forests and wetlands were critical predictors for all tick species.
- Warming climate increased species' responsiveness to precipitation and temperature, especially precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range.
- Suitable habitats for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum were projected to narrow by mid-century (2050s) and then broaden by late-century (2070s) with reduced likelihoods.
Conclusions:
- Climate change significantly alters tick habitat suitability in Illinois.
- Proximity to forests and water sources, alongside specific climate variables, will drive future tick distributions.
- Predictive modeling is crucial for anticipating tick invasion and TBD hotspots, aiding public health preparedness.
Related Concept Videos
01:18Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results from...
01:26Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever