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Including a Technical Factor with Physical and In-Game Movement Factors Improves Model Sensitivity When Evaluating

Jacob Jennings1,2, Daniel Wundersitz1, Courtney Sullivan1

  • 1Holsworth Research Initiative, La Trobe Rural Health School, La Trobe University, Bendigo, VIC 3552, Australia.

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Identifying draft-eligible players requires sensitive predictive models. This study found that combining physical and technical factors improved model sensitivity for identifying potential draftees in elite junior Australian football.

Keywords:
draftperformancerecruitmenttalent identificationteam sports

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Area of Science:

  • Sports Science
  • Talent Identification
  • Predictive Modelling

Background:

  • Accurate talent identification is crucial for player recruitment and development.
  • Current predictive models often have poor or unreported sensitivity in identifying draft-potential players.
  • Limited variables are typically used in existing talent identification models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how technical, physical, and in-game movement factors influence position-specific model sensitivity for predicting Australian football draft success.
  • To develop and compare predictive models incorporating different factor combinations for various player positions.

Main Methods:

  • Data from 465 draft-eligible under 18 male players in the National Australia Bank (NAB) League were collected.
  • Physical, in-game movement, and technical involvement data were analyzed using parallel analysis and binomial regression.
  • Models were built to predict draft success for all-position, nomadic, fixed-position, and fixed&ruck player categories.

Main Results:

  • Models incorporating physical and technical factors showed improved sensitivity for all-position (36.6%) and nomadic (40.7%) players.
  • Physical factors alone yielded the best model for fixed-position players (sensitivity 41.7%).
  • Physical and in-game movement factors provided the best model for fixed&ruck players (sensitivity 41.2%).

Conclusions:

  • Combining physical and technical factors enhances the sensitivity of predictive models for identifying potential draftees, particularly for all-position and nomadic players.
  • Different factor combinations are optimal for different player positions, highlighting the need for position-specific talent identification strategies.
  • Improved model sensitivity is essential for practitioners to confidently identify players with draft potential.