Modeling transport and fate of heavy metals at the watershed scale: State-of-the-art and future directions

A predictive understanding of the source-specific (e.g., point and diffuse sources) land-to-river heavy metal (HM) loads and HM dynamics in rivers is essential for mitigating river pollution and developing effective river basin management strategies. Developing such strategies requires adequate monitoring and comprehensive models based on a solid scientific understanding of the watershed system. However, a comprehensive review of existing studies on the watershed-scale HM fate and transport modeling is lacking. In this review, we synthesize the recent developments in the current generation of watershed-scale HM models, which cover a wide range of functionalities, capabilities, and spatial and temporal scales (resolutions). Existing models, constructed at various levels of complexity, have their strengths and weaknesses in supporting diverse intended uses. Additionally, current challenges in the application of watershed HM modeling are covered, including the representation of in-stream processes, organic matter/carbon dynamics and mitigation practices, the issues of model calibration and uncertainty analysis, and the balance between model complexity and available data. Finally, we outline future research requirements regarding modeling, strategic monitoring, and their combined use to enhance model capabilities. In particular, we envisage a flexible framework for future watershed-scale HM models with varying degrees of complexity to accommodate the available data and specific applications.