Frailty predicts mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed: a prospective cohort study

Evidence on the impact of frailty in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB) is limited. This study aims to define the role of frailty as defined by Canadian Study of Health and Aging clinical frailty scale (CSHA-CFS) in predicting mortality in UGIB.

A prospective single-center cohort study was conducted over 21 months on all consecutive patients with UGIB. Data on demographics, lab parameters, Glasgow Blatchford score, CSHA-CFS, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and AIMS65 score was recorded. The primary outcome was all-cause inpatient mortality. The secondary outcomes were all-cause 30-day mortality, 30-day rebleeding, 30-day readmission, hospital length of stay (LoS), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for repeat endoscopy, and need for blood transfusion. The data were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analysis.

There were 298 eligible patients, of which 63% were males, median age was 68 years, 44% were from non-English-speaking background, and 72% had major comorbidities. The all-cause inpatient and 30-day mortality were 9.4% and 10.7%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, CHSA-CFS was the independent predictor of all-cause inpatient mortality (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.13-2.143; P = 0.010) and all-cause 30-day mortality (OR 1.83; 95% CI 1.26-2.67; P = 0.002). CHSA-CFS was not a significant predictor of 30-day rebleed, 30-day readmission, ICU admission, hospital LoS, or need for blood transfusion.

Frailty is an important independent predictor of mortality in patients with UGIB. Frailty assessment can guide clinical decision making and allow targeting of health-care resource (Australia/New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry number: ACTRN12622000821796).