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Strict Lockdown versus Flexible Social Distance Strategy for COVID-19 Disease: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

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  • 1Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

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Summary

A strict lockdown for Coronavirus-19 Disease (COVID-19) cost over $130,000 per life year saved. Flexible social distancing policies are a defensible alternative for managing COVID-19, considering cost-effectiveness.

Keywords:
COVID-19Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisFlexible Social DistancingLockdown Strategy

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Economics
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Societies worldwide implemented diverse strategies to mitigate Coronavirus-19 Disease (COVID-19) impact.
  • Strict lockdowns and flexible social distancing represent two contrasting approaches with significant economic and health implications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the cost-effectiveness of a strict lockdown strategy versus a flexible social distancing policy for managing COVID-19.
  • To analyze the financial costs and life years saved associated with each strategy.

Main Methods:

  • A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing Denmark's strict lockdown with Sweden's flexible social distancing for COVID-19.
  • Utilized societal data, COVID-19 mortality rates, and economic statistics (GDP) per million inhabitants.
  • Calculated incremental costs per life year saved, with sensitivity analyses on lockdown costs.

Main Results:

  • Sweden (flexible distancing) had 577 COVID-19 deaths/million, losing an estimated 6,350 life years/million.
  • Denmark (strict lockdown) had 111 COVID-19 deaths/million, losing an estimated 1,216 life years/million.
  • The incremental cost of strict lockdown was $137,285 per life year saved, exceeding this in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions:

  • Strict lockdowns for COVID-19 incur substantial costs, exceeding $130,000 per life year saved.
  • Flexible social distancing policies present a cost-effective and defensible approach to managing COVID-19.
  • Public health intervention comparisons must consider both lives lost and life years saved.