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Police Force Size and Civilian Race.

Aaron Chalfin1, Benjamin Hansen2, Emily K Weisburst3

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Increased police force size reduces homicides, with greater effects for Black victims. While serious crime arrests decrease, low-level arrests rise disproportionately for Black Americans, impacting communities unequally.

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Sociology
  • Public Policy

Background:

  • The relationship between police force size and crime rates is a critical area of public policy and academic research.
  • Understanding the race-specific impacts of policing is essential for addressing systemic inequalities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically estimate the race-specific effects of increasing police force size in the United States.
  • To analyze how police force growth influences homicide rates, serious crime arrests, and low-level offense arrests, with a focus on racial disparities.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized novel empirical estimation techniques to quantify the impact of police officer numbers on crime and arrest data.
  • Analyzed race-specific effects on homicide victimization and arrest patterns for serious and low-level offenses.

Main Results:

  • Each additional police officer is associated with a reduction of approximately 0.1 homicides.
  • The homicide reduction effects per capita are twice as large for Black victims compared to White victims.
  • Larger police forces result in fewer arrests for serious crimes, with greater reductions for crimes involving Black suspects, indicating no increase in racial disparities for major charges.
  • Conversely, larger police forces lead to more arrests for low-level "quality-of-life" offenses, disproportionately impacting Black Americans.

Conclusions:

  • While increased police presence can reduce homicides, particularly for Black victims, its effects on arrests are complex.
  • Police force growth does not exacerbate racial disparities in arrests for serious crimes.
  • There is a disproportionate increase in arrests for low-level offenses among Black Americans with larger police forces, suggesting a significant impact on specific communities.