The temporal and spatial characteristics and influencing factors of CO₂ emissions from municipal solid waste in China

Understanding the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) and a quantitative evaluation of the contribution rate of the factors influencing the changes in CO₂ emissions are important for pollution and emission reduction and the realization of the "double carbon" goal. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of waste generation and treatment based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the past 15 years and then applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to study the driving factors of CO₂ emissions from MSW. China's MSW production and CO₂ emissions displayed a rising trend, and the overall CO₂ emissions showed a geographical pattern of being high in the east and low in the west. Carbon emission intensity, economic output, urbanization level, and population size were positive factors that increased CO₂ emissions. The most important factors driving CO₂ emissions were carbon emission intensity and economic output, with cumulative contribution rates of 55.29% and 47.91%, respectively. Solid waste emission intensity was a negative factor in reducing CO₂ emissions, with a cumulative contribution rate of -24.52%. These results have important implications for the design of policies to reduce CO₂ emissions from MSW.