Association of Weight Trajectory With Severe Obesity: A Case-Control Study

Early childhood weight trajectory is associated with future risk for obesity. However, little is known about the association of birth weight and weight trajectories before age 5.5 years with severe adult obesity. This study used a nested case-control design of 785 matched sets of cases and controls matched 1:1 on age and gender from a 1976 to 1982 birth cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Cases with severe adult obesity were defined as individuals with a BMI ≥40 kg/m² after 18 years of age. There were 737 matched sets of cases and controls for the trajectory analysis. Weight and height data from birth through 5.5 years were abstracted from the medical records, and weight-for-age percentiles were obtained from the CDC growth charts. A two-cluster weight-for-age trajectory solution was identified as optimal, with cluster 1 having higher weight-for-age before age 5.5 years. While there was no association between birth weight and severe adult obesity, the odds of being in cluster 1, which includes children with higher weight-for-age percentiles, was significantly increased for cases compared with controls [odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-2.47]. The association between cluster membership and case-control status persisted after adjusting for maternal age and education (adjusted OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.66-2.61). Our data suggest that early childhood weight-for-age trajectories are associated with severe obesity status in adult life. Our results add to growing evidence that it is critical to prevent excess early childhood weight gain.