[Predictive factors for sequelae of bronchitis obliterans in refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia]

Objective: To investigate the predictive factors for bronchitis obliterans in refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP). Methods: A restrospective case summary was conducted 230 patients with RMPP admitted to the Department of No.2 Respiratory Medicine of Beijing Children's Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2013 to June 2017 were recruited. Clinical data, laboratory results, imaging results and follow-up data were collected. Based on bronchoscopy and imaging findings 1 year after discharge, all patients were divided into two groups: one group had sequelae of bronchitis obliterans (sequelae group) and the other group had not bronchitis obliterans (control group), independent sample t-test and nonparametric test were used to compare the differences in clinical features between the two groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to explore the predictive value of Bronchitis Obliterans in RMPP. Results: Among 230 RMPP children, there were 115 males and 115 females, 95 cases had sequelae group, the age of disease onset was (7.1±2.8) years;135 cases had control group, the age of disease onset was (6.8±2.7) years. The duration of fever, C-reative protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, the proportion of ≥2/3 lobe consolidation, pleural effusion and the proportion of airway mucus plug and mucosal necrosis were longer or higher in the sequelae group than those in the control group ((17±9) vs. (12±3) d, (193±59) vs. (98±42) mg/L,730 (660, 814) vs. 486 (452, 522) U/L, 89 cases (93.7%) vs. 73 cases (54.1%), 73 cases (76.8%) vs.59 cases (43.7%), 81 cases (85.3%) vs. 20 cases (14.8%), 67 cases (70.5%) vs. 9 cases (6.7%), t=5.76, 13.35, Z=-6.41, χ²=14.64, 25.04, 22.85, 102.78, all P<0.001). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever ≥10 days (OR=1.200, 95%CI 1.014-1.419), CRP levels increased (OR=1.033, 95%CI 1.022-1.044) and LDH levels increased (OR=1.001, 95%CI 1.000-1.003) were the risk factors for sequelae of bronchitis obliterans in RMPP. ROC curve analysis showed that CRP 137 mg/L had a sensitivity of 82.1% and a specificity of 80.1%; LDH 471 U/L had a sensitivity of 62.7% and a specificity of 60.3% for predicting the development of bronchitis obliterans. Conclusions: The long duration of fever (≥10 d), CRP increase (≥137 mg/L) may be used to predict the occurrence of sequelae of bronchitis obliterans in RMPP. It is helpful for early recognition of risk children.