Baseline Predictors of Longitudinal Cognitive Outcomes in Persons with Mild Cognitive Impairment

The study aimed to explore longitudinal cognitive outcomes and to ascertain predictors of conversion to dementia in a hospital-based mild cognitive impairment (MCI) cohort classified according to the neuropsychological phenotype at baseline.

Subjects aged >55 years who had a clinical diagnosis of MCI at initial visit between 2010 and 2018, with at least one formal neuropsychological assessment at baseline and follow-up of a minimum of 2 years were included. The prospective study was completed based on evaluation at last follow-up to gauge conversion to dementia, quantification of performance on activities of daily living and when available, longitudinal neuropsychological test scores.

Ninety-five patients with MCI met the inclusion criteria with a mean age of 68.4 ± 6.4 years at baseline and a mean duration of follow-up for 6.4 ± 3.2 years. The cumulative conversion rate to dementia was 22.2% (21/95) and the annualized conversion rate was 3.3% per year of follow-up. The majority of subjects who had converted had multidomain MCI (66%). Only white matter changes on MRI brain revealed correlation with baseline neuropsychology tests. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the utility of lower baseline list recognition (adjusted odds ratio: 0.735 [95% confidence interval: 0.589-0.916]; p 0.006), lower immediate logical memory (0.885 [0.790-0.990]; p 0.03), and high perseverative error scores on set shifting (3.116 [1.425-6.817]; p 0.004) as predictors of conversion. A model score of +2.615 could predict conversion with sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 98% over 6.4 years follow-up.

There was a higher risk of conversion associated with multidomain MCI. Logistic regression-based estimations of dementia risk utilizing domain-based neuropsychology test scores in MCI have high specificity for diagnosis at baseline.