Emergence of a predictive model in the hippocampus

The brain organizes experiences into memories that guide future behavior. Hippocampal CA1 population activity is hypothesized to reflect predictive models that contain information about future events, but little is known about how they develop. We trained mice on a series of problems with or without a common statistical structure to observe how memories are formed and updated. Mice that learned structured problems integrated their experiences into a predictive model that contained the solutions to upcoming novel problems. Retrieving the model during learning improved discrimination accuracy and facilitated learning. Using calcium imaging to track CA1 activity during learning, we found that hippocampal ensemble activity became more stable as mice formed a predictive model. The hippocampal ensemble was reactivated during training and incorporated new activity patterns from each training problem. These results show how hippocampal activity supports building predictive models by organizing new information with respect to existing memories.