Setback zones can effectively reduce exposure to sea-level rise in Europe

Coastal space is one of the most valuable assets of the EU coastal member states, as the coast is highly urbanized. Hard engineering has traditionally been employed to protect communities in coastal lowlands, but as this alternative becomes less sustainable and more costly, coastal managers are increasingly turning to landuse planning strategies, such as setback zones or managed retreat. To explore the efficiency of these planning tools in reducing future urban exposure to sea-level rise and associated hazards, we developed spatially explicit projections of urban extent that account for different socio-economic futures and various types of setback zones. We find that the establishment of coastal setback zones can reduce the exposure of new urban development by at least 50% in the majority of EU countries by 2100. Our results emphasize that future urban exposure to sea-level rise will be significantly influenced by the ways in which we plan, design, and develop urban space in the EU coastal lowlands.