Time trends in survival and causes of death in multiple myeloma: a population-based study from Germany

Steady evolution of therapies has improved prognosis of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) over the past two decades. Yet, knowledge about survival trends and causes of death in MM might play a crucial role in long-term management of this patient collective. Here, we investigate time trends in myeloma-specific survival at the population level over two decades and analyse causes of death in times of prolonged survival.

Age-standardised and age group-specific relative survival (RS) of MM patients aged < 80 years at diagnosis was estimated for consecutive time periods from 2000-2019 using data from the Cancer Registry of North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. Conditional RS was estimated for patients who already survived one to five years post diagnosis. Causes of death in MM patients were analysed and compared to the general population using standardised mortality ratios (SMR).

Three thousand three hundred thirty-six MM cases were included in the time trend analysis. Over two decades, age-standardised 5-year RS increased from 37 to 62%. Age-specific survival improved from 41% in period 2000-2004 to 69% in period 2015-2019 in the age group 15-69 years, and from 23 to 47% in the age group 70-79 years. Conditional 5-year RS of patients who survived five years after diagnosis slightly improved as compared to unconditional 5-year RS at diagnosis. MM patients are two times more likely to die from non-myeloma malignancies (SMR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.81-2.15) and from cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.86-2.18) than the general population.

Prognosis of patients with MM has markedly improved since the year 2000 due to therapeutic advances. Nevertheless, late mortality remains a major concern. As survival improves, second primary malignancies and cardiovascular events deserve increased attention.