Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults

Predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) is important for identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease individuals and providing preventive interventions. We aimed to develop and validate an equation and a simple MetS score according to the Japanese MetS criteria.

In total, 54,198 participants (age, 54.5±10.1 years; men, 46.0%), with baseline and 5-year follow-up data were randomly assigned to 'Derivation' and 'Validation' cohorts (ratio: 2:1). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed in derivation cohort and scores were assigned to factors corresponding to β-coefficients. We evaluated predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC), then applied them to validation cohort to assess reproducibility.

The primary model ranged 0-27 points had an AUC of 0.81 (sensitivity: 0.81, specificity: 0.81, cut-off score: 14), and consisted of age, sex, blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), serum lipids, glucose measurements, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The simplified model (excluding blood tests) ranged 0-17 points with an AUC of 0.78 (sensitivity: 0.83, specificity: 0.77, cut-off score: 15) and included: age, sex, systolic BP, diastolic BP, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. We classified individuals with a score <15 and ≥15 points as low- and high-risk MetS, respectively. Furthermore, the equation model generated an AUC of 0.85 (sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.55). Analysis of the validation and derivation cohorts yielded similar results.

We developed a primary score, an equation model, and a simple score. The simple score is convenient, well-validated with acceptable discrimination, and could be used for early detection of MetS in high-risk individuals.