Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change
Karthik Balaguru1, Wenwei Xu1, Chuan-Chieh Chang1
1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.
Science Advances
|April 7, 2023
Summary
Climate change is projected to increase hurricane frequency along the U.S. Gulf and East coasts due to altered steering flows and reduced wind shear. These changes are linked to tropical Pacific heating patterns.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Meteorology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Climate change impacts on U.S. coastal hurricane risk are complex and not fully understood.
- Existing research proposes several pathways but lacks clarity on physical mechanisms and interconnections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the physical mechanisms linking climate change to U.S. coastal hurricane risk.
- To project future hurricane activity and identify key drivers of changes in risk.
Main Methods:
- Downscaling future hurricane activity projections (1980-2100) from multiple climate models.
- Utilizing a synthetic hurricane model to simulate hurricane behavior.
- Analyzing changes in atmospheric steering flow and wind shear.
Main Results:
- Projected enhanced hurricane frequency for the U.S. Gulf and lower East coasts.
- Increased frequency driven by changes in steering flow linked to western Atlantic cyclonic circulation.
- Tropical Pacific diabatic heating influences Rossby waves, affecting steering flow and reducing wind shear.
Conclusions:
- Climate change-induced alterations in steering flow and wind shear significantly increase U.S. coastal hurricane risk.
- The study clarifies physical connections between tropical heating, atmospheric circulation, and hurricane activity.
- Findings highlight the interconnected nature of climate impacts on hurricane dynamics.
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