Food-water-land-ecosystem nexus in typical Chinese dryland under different future scenarios

Healthy coupling of the food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is the basis for achieving sustainable development (SD), and FWLE in drylands is frontier scientific issues in the study of coupled human land systems. To comprehensively safeguard the future food, water, and ecological security of drylands, this study examined the implications for FWLE linkages in a typical Chinese dryland from the perspective of future land-use change. First, four different land-use scenarios were proposed using a land-use simulation model with a gray multi-objective algorithm, including an SD scenario. Then, the variation of three ecosystem services was explored: water yield, food production, and habitat quality. Finally, redundancy analysis was used to derive the future drivers of FWLE and explore their causes. The following results were obtained. In the future in Xinjiang, under the business as usual scenario, urbanization will continue, forest area will decrease, and water production will decline by 371 million m³. In contrast, in the SD scenario, this negative impact will be substantially offset, water scarcity will be alleviated, and food production will increase by 1.05 million tons. In terms of drivers, the anthropogenic drivers will moderate the future urbanization of Xinjiang to some extent, with natural drivers dominating the sustainable development scenario by 2030 and a potential 22 % increase in the drivers of precipitation. This study shows how spatial optimization can help protect the sustainability of the FWLE nexus in drylands and simultaneously provides clear policy recommendations for regional development.