Mapping rabies distribution in China: a geospatial analysis of national surveillance data

Dog-mediated human rabies remains an important public health problem in China. In this study, we aimed to understand the spatiotemporal variation of rabies and examine its nonmedical ecological factors.

In this study, we used the annual incidence data for rabies at the province level in China to describe the incidence trends for the period 2004-2019 and used a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model to determine the impacts of environmental, economic, and demographic factors.

From 2004 to 2019, there were 26,593 cases reported in 31 provinces in Mainland China, and the annual incidence increased from 0.02 per 100,000 in 2004 to 0.14 in 2007, substantially decreased in 2008, and was gradually declining thereafter. Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, and Hainan were four high-risk provinces, and Yunnan and Anhui provinces showed an increased risk in 2018 and 2019. Temperature and per capita gross domestic product were significantly positively correlated with the disease risk. The standardized morbidity ratio of rabies is likely to increase by 28% (relative risk: 1.28, 95% credible interval: 1.13-1.36) for every 1°C rise in temperature, and 17% (relative risk: 1.17, 95% credible interval: 1.01-1.34) for every 10,000 yuan increase in per capita gross domestic product.

In most provinces in China, the risk of rabies has been reduced to a persistently low level. However, the progress of rabies control in six provinces have been less than satisfactory. The study highlights interventions, such as enhancing animal vaccination need to be implemented in these priority areas.