The spatial-temporal pattern of Japanese encephalitis and its influencing factors in Guangxi, China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a major global public health threat. Using Japanese encephalitis incidence data from 2004 to 2010 in Guangxi Province, China, this study comprehensively explored the driving forces and the interactive effects between environmental and social factors of Japanese encephalitis using the Geo-detector method. The results indicated that the incidence of Japanese encephalitis showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2004 to 2010. The onset of JE was seasonal, mainly concentrated in June-July, and highly aggregated in northwestern Guangxi. Among the factors associated with Japanese encephalitis, days with temperatures >30 °C, accumulated temperatures >25 °C, slope, the normalized difference vegetation index, the gross domestic product of tertiary industries, the gross domestic product of primary industries and the number of pigs slaughtered showed higher contributions to Japanese encephalitis incidence. An enhanced interactive effect was found between environmental and social factors, and the interaction between days with humidity levels >80% and the gross domestic product of tertiary industries had the greatest combined effect on JE. These findings enhanced the understanding of the combined effect of social and environmental factors on the incidence of Japanese encephalitis and could help improve Japanese encephalitis transmission control and prevention strategies.