Sex-Specific Models to Predict Insulin Secretion and Sensitivity in Subjects with Overweight and Obesity

Sex-specific differences exist in insulin secretion (ISec) and sensitivity (IS) in humans. However, current fasting indices used to estimate them, such as HOMA and QUICKI, are not sex-specific. We aimed to develop sex-specific models to improve the prediction of ISec and IS by fasting measures in adults with overweight/obesity. A post hoc analysis was conducted on baseline data of two clinical trials completed between 2010 and 2020 (37 men and 61 postmenopausal women, 45-73 years, BMI > 25 kg/m², without chronic disease). Glucose-induced insulin or C-peptide secretions and IS were measured using gold-standard Botnia-clamps, which is a 1 h intravenous glucose tolerance test followed by a 3 h hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. Stepwise regression analysis using anthropometric and fasting plasma glucose, insulin, and lipoprotein-related measures was used to predict ISec and IS. First-phase, second-phase and total glucose-induced ISec were predicted by a combination of fasting plasma insulin and apoB without or with plasma glucose, triglyceride, and waist circumference in women (R² = 0.58-0.69), and by plasma insulin and glucose without or with BMI and cholesterol in men (R² = 0.41-0.83). Plasma C-peptide, alone in men or followed by glucose in women, predicted C-peptide secretion. IS was predicted by plasma insulin and waist circumference, followed by HDL-C in women (R² = 0.57) or by glucose in men (R² = 0.67). The sex-specific models agreed with the Botnia-clamp measurements of ISec and IS more than with HOMA or QUICKI. Sex-specific models incorporating anthropometric and lipoprotein-related parameters allowed better prediction of ISec and IS in subjects with overweight or obesity than current indices that rely on glucose and insulin alone.