Identifying high school smokers likely to persist in smoking at age 31

Quitting smoking by the mid-30 s conveys important health benefits. Yet, although many smokers attempt to quit, few succeed. Identification of the characteristics of adolescent smokers most likely to continue smoking between ages 30 and 40 could help target early cessation efforts. Our objectives in this study were to (i) describe the course of smoking in a population-based sample of high school smokers into their 20 s and 30 s, and (ii) identify distal predictors of past-year cigarette smoking at age 31.

Data at ages 17 (in 11th grade), 20, 24 and 31 were drawn from a 20-year longitudinal study of students ages 12-13 at inception, from 10 high schools in Montréal, Canada. Associations between 11 smoking-related characteristics measured in 11th grade and past-year smoking at age 31 were estimated in multivariable logistic regression models.

Among 244 11th grade smokers (67.4% female; 41% daily smokers), past-year smoking was reported by 71% at age 20, 68% at age 24, and 52% at age 31. Only 12% reported abstinence at ages 20, 24 and 31. Females were less likely than males to smoke at age 31. Parental smoking while the smoker was in 11th grade, use of other tobacco products, longer time since smoking onset, weekly or daily smoking, monthly cigarette consumption, and perceived nicotine addiction predicted past-year smoking at age 31.

In addition to preventive interventions, cessation programs targeting novice smokers in high school as soon as they begin smoking, are warranted.