Bias-corrected climate change projections over the Upper Indus Basin using a multi-model ensemble

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Hydrology

Background:

• The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) spans India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China, facing potential climate change impacts.
• Understanding future climate scenarios is vital for regional water resource management and ecological stability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future climate conditions in the UIB under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
• To assess the potential impacts of projected climate changes on the region's ecosystem services and socio-hydrological regimes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the GFDL CM3 climate model, validated against observations from eight meteorological stations.
• Applied the Aerts and Droogers statistical downscaling method to reduce model bias.
• Projected climate variables for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the late 21st century.

Main Results:

• Projected significant temperature increases across all UIB sub-basins (Jhelum, Chenab, Indus).
• Indicated a slight increase in precipitation across the UIB, varying by sub-basin and scenario.
• GFDL CM3, after bias correction, provided reliable projections for the region.

Conclusions:

• The UIB is projected to experience substantial warming and modest wetting by the late 21st century.
• These climate shifts will likely impact ecosystem services, irrigation, and livelihoods, necessitating climate action.
• High-resolution climate projections are essential for informing policy and adaptation strategies in the UIB.