Budget impact analysis of comprehensive genomic profiling for untreated advanced or recurrent solid cancers in Japan

In Japan, the use of comprehensive genomic profiling (CGP) is only available for cancer patients who have no standard of care (SoC), or those who have completed SoC. This may lead to missed treatment opportunities for patients with druggable alterations. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of CGP testing before SoC on medical costs and clinical outcome in untreated patients with advanced or recurrent biliary tract cancer (BTC), non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSQ-NSCLC), or colorectal cancer (CRC) in Japan between 2022 and 2026.

We constructed a decision-tree model reflecting the healthcare environment of Japan, to estimate the clinical outcome and medical costs impact of CGP testing by comparing two groups (with vs without CGP testing before SoC). The epidemiological parameters, detection rates of druggable alterations, and overall survival were collected from literature and claims databases in Japan. Treatment options selected based on druggable alterations were set in the model based on clinical experts' opinions.

In 2026, the number of untreated patients with advanced or recurrent BTC, NSQ-NSCLC, and CRC was estimated to be 8600, 32,103, and 24,896, respectively. Compared with the group without CGP testing before SoC, CGP testing before SoC increased druggable alteration detection and treatment rate with matched therapies in all three cancer types. The medical costs per patient per month were estimated to increase with CGP testing before SoC in the three cancer types by 19,600, 2900, and 2200 JPY (145, 21, and 16 USD), respectively.

Only those druggable alterations with matched therapies were considered in the analysis model, while the potential impact of other genomic alterations provided by CGP testing was not considered.

The present study suggested that CGP testing before SoC may improve patient outcomes in various cancer types with a limited and controllable increase in medical costs.