A Nationally Representative Study of the Hardening Hypothesis Among Educational Groups Over Four Decades

As smoking prevalence has decreased, there has been debate about "hardening" (smokers are more resistant to established tobacco control measures) or "softening" (smokers are more responsive to interventions) of the remaining smoking population. Despite growing evidence to reject the "hardening" hypothesis, there is lack of long-term population-based studies to test this hypothesis by educational level.

Repeated cross-sectional population-based surveys during 1978-2014 and in 2018 were utilized. The target population consisted of ~5000 25-64-year-old Finns annually. The data included 109 257 respondents of which 53 351 ever-smoking individuals were included in the analyses. Response rates varied between 84% and 43%. Five hardening indicators considering smoking frequency, intensity and smoking cessation were used as the dependent variables. The main independent variable was study year (time). Statistical analyses were based on regression models using restricted cubic splines by educational level.

Contrary to the hardening hypothesis, hardening indicators showed softening over time among all educational groups. However, educational groups differed from each other. Compared with the highly educated, the quit ratio was lower, number of cigarettes per day (CPD) was higher, the proportions of daily smokers among current smokers and heavy smokers among daily smokers were higher among the less educated.

In accordance with growing evidence, also the Finnish smoking population has "softened" over time. Although the change has been predominantly in the same direction for all educational groups, the rate of change has been stronger among the highly educated, highlighting the continued burden of smoking among the less educated.

Even though "softening" of smoking has occurred, lighter smoking also poses health risks. Therefore, tobacco control policies and cessation services should be developed and targeted to a greater extent also for people who smoke less than daily and for those who smoke fewer CPD. Furthermore, interventions should focus on special requirements of the lower educational groups to promote health equity.