Application of multi-agent decision-making methods in hydrological ecosystem services management.

Area of Science:

• Hydrology and Water Resource Management
• Ecosystem Services Assessment
• Decision Science

Background:

• Effective management of hydrological ecosystem services (ESs) requires considering diverse stakeholder interests and decision-making hierarchies.
• Existing water resource management policies often lack a comprehensive framework for evaluating ESs and integrating multi-level stakeholder input.
• Drought management necessitates strategies that balance agricultural demands with ecological preservation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and present a methodology for managing hydrological ESs that incorporates stakeholder hierarchies.
• To evaluate water resource management policies using ES-based criteria, including economic profit, Net Primary Production (NPP), and ecological indices.
• To model and solve a multi-agent, multi-criteria decision-making problem for optimizing hydrological ES management.

Main Methods:

• A water allocation model was employed to distribute water resources according to defined demands.
• Ecosystem services (ESs)-based criteria were established to assess the performance of water resource management policies.
• A hierarchical recursive evidential reasoning (ER) approach, incorporating a leader-follower game, was utilized to select optimal strategies for decision-makers at different levels.

Main Results:

• Defined ES-based criteria (economic profit, NPP, ecological index) and estimated their grade-based values.
• Developed multiple strategies for stakeholders across different hierarchical levels.
• Applied a recursive evidential reasoning (ER) approach to select the best strategy for each decision-maker within a hierarchical structure.

Conclusions:

• The presented methodology provides a robust framework for managing hydrological ecosystem services by integrating stakeholder perspectives and decision-making hierarchies.
• The approach demonstrated its applicability and efficiency in a real-world case study, highlighting its potential for broader adoption.
• The methodology offers a generalizable solution for complex water and environmental resource management challenges.