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Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: development of a machine-learning model to predict response to
Frances H Gabbay1,2, Gary H Wynn1, Matthew W Georg1,2
1Department of Psychiatry, Uniformed Services University, Bethesda, Maryland.
Study Objectives:
Although many military personnel with insomnia are treated with prescription medication, little reliable guidance exists to identify patients most likely to respond. As a first step toward personalized care for insomnia, we present results of a machine-learning model to predict response to insomnia medication.
Methods:
The sample comprised n = 4,738 nondeployed US Army soldiers treated with insomnia medication and followed 6-12 weeks after initiating treatment. All patients had moderate-severe baseline scores on the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) and completed 1 or more follow-up ISIs 6-12 weeks after baseline. An ensemble machine-learning model was developed in a 70% training sample to predict clinically significant ISI improvement, defined as reduction of at least 2 standard deviations on the baseline ISI distribution. Predictors included a wide range of military administrative and baseline clinical variables. Model accuracy was evaluated in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results:
21.3% of patients had clinically significant ISI improvement. Model test sample area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (standard error) was 0.63 (0.02). Among the 30% of patients with the highest predicted probabilities of improvement, 32.5.% had clinically significant symptom improvement vs 16.6% in the 70% sample predicted to be least likely to improve (χ21 = 37.1, P < .001). More than 75% of prediction accuracy was due to 10 variables, the most important of which was baseline insomnia severity.
Conclusions:
Pending replication, the model could be used as part of a patient-centered decision-making process for insomnia treatment, but parallel models will be needed for alternative treatments before such a system is of optimal value.
Citation:
Gabbay FH, Wynn GH, Georg MW, et al. Toward personalized care for insomnia in the US Army: development of a machine-learning model to predict response to pharmacotherapy. J Clin Sleep Med. 2023;19(8):1399-1410.
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