Changing Iodine Status and the Incidence of Thyroid Disease in Mainland China: A Prospective 20-Year Follow-Up Study

We aimed to assess the long-term effects of the transition in iodine status on the incidence of thyroid disorders over 20 years of follow-up. The original prospective cohort study, started in 1999 (n = 3761), classified three regions in north China based on iodine status (insufficient iodine, more than adequate iodine, and excessive iodine, respectively) for 5 years. Subsequently, participants were followed for up to another 15 years to assess the long-term effects of shifts to adequate iodine on the incidence of thyroid disorders. Panshan transitioned from insufficient to adequate iodine, and Huanghua transitioned from excessive to more than adequate iodine. Both regions were compared with Zhangwu, in which iodine status changed from more than adequate to adequate iodine (from 214 to 167.2 μg/L). A cluster sampling method was used to select participants in the three regions. Participants completed questionnaires and underwent thyroid ultrasonography. Urinary iodine concentrations (UICs), serum thyroid hormone concentration, and thyroid antibodies were measured. When the iodine status changed from insufficient to adequate (with the median UIC increasing from 88 to 141.9 μg/L), the incidence density of subclinical hyperthyroidism, positive thyroperoxidase antibody, positive thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb), and goiter decreased significantly (p < 0.05 for all). Additionally, the cumulative incidence of subclinical hypothyroidism was significantly lower compared with the region where the iodine status changed from being more than adequate to adequate (1.9% vs. 6.0%, p < 0.001). When the iodine status changed from excessive to more than adequate (median UIC from 634 to 266.7 μg/L), a significant decrease in the incidence density of subclinical hyperthyroidism, positive thyroid antibodies, positive TgAb, and goiter (p < 0.05 for all) were also found. However, an increase in thyroid nodule incidence density (17.26 vs. 28.25 per 1000 person-years, p < 0.001) was seen. The incidence of thyroid disorders (except for thyroid nodules) stabilized or decreased among adults in the three communities from year 5 to year 15 of follow-up. Appropriate iodine fortification is safe and effective over the long term. Restoring urinary iodine to appropriate levels reduces population risk for thyroid disorders.