Predicting conversion surgery in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer after modified FOLFIRINOX treatment

/Objective: FOLFIRINOX therapy (FFX) for locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) is increasingly recognized as a potent neoadjuvant therapy that enables transition to conversion surgery (CS). However, predictors of CS achievement after chemotherapy are controversial. This study aimed to demonstrate the efficacy of CS after modified FFX (mFFX) in patients with LAPC and to identify and score predictors of CS.

From January 2014 to December 2018, patients with LAPC who received mFFX as a first-line treatment were screened. Patients' overall survival was compared with and without CS. Moreover, the predictors for CS were analyzed to create scores for the CS factors.

Forty-three patients received mFFX, including 20 patients who underwent CS (CS group, 46.5%). R0 resection was achieved in 16 patients (80%). The median survival time was 39.2 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 17.3-53.8) for the CS group and 16 months (95% CI 10.5-22.6) for the non-CS group (P < 0.001; hazard ratio 0.25, 95% CI 0.12-0.54). Since an average relative dose intensity of ≥90%, tumor reduction of ≥35%, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 reduction of ≥70% or normalization were associated with successful transition to CS in the multivariate analysis, these factors were scored (CS score, range 0-3). All of the patients in the CS group fell into the 2-3 category, compared with 2 of 23 patients in the non-CS group (P < 0.001).

CS after FFX contributes to the long-term survival of patients with LAPC. The CS score could be an indicator for transition to CS.