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Published on: November 10, 2023
Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic
Wenlong Zhu1, Zexuan Wen1, Yue Chen2
1Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Background:
From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic.
Methods:
Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix.
Results:
R0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50-59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%).
Conclusions:
The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40-59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40-59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants.
Trial Registration:
We did not involve clinical trial.
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