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An ensemble deep learning approach for predicting cocoa yield.
Sunday Samuel Olofintuyi1, Emmanuel Ajayi Olajubu2, Deji Olanike3
1Department of Computer Science, Achievers University, Owo, Nigeria.
This study introduces an efficient deep learning model for cocoa yield prediction, combining Convolutional Neural Network and Recurrent Neural Network (CNN-RNN) with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). The model demonstrated superior accuracy compared to traditional methods, improving agricultural planning.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Computer Science
- Data Science
Background:
- Crop yield prediction is crucial for agricultural planning and policy-making.
- Traditional statistical models for crop yield prediction face challenges like inaccuracy and time inefficiency.
- Deep learning and machine learning offer advanced pattern extraction from large datasets for improved prediction.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose an efficient deep learning technique for cocoa yield prediction.
- To develop a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network and Recurrent Neural Network (CNN-RNN) model integrated with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM).
- To address the limitations of previous crop yield prediction models.
Main Methods:
- An ensemble deep learning approach using CNN-RNN with LSTM was developed.
- CNN processed the climatic dataset, while RNN handled the cocoa yield dataset for southwest Nigeria.
- LSTM was employed to mitigate vanishing and exploding gradient issues inherent in CNN-RNN models.
Main Results:
- The proposed CNN-RNN with LSTM model was benchmarked against other machine learning algorithms.
- Performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
- The CNN-RNN with LSTM model achieved the lowest Mean Absolute Error, indicating high prediction efficiency.
Conclusions:
- The CNN-RNN with LSTM model offers an efficient and accurate solution for cocoa yield prediction.
- This deep learning approach overcomes limitations of traditional statistical methods.
- The findings support improved agricultural planning and decision-making through enhanced prediction accuracy.

