Incidence and prognostic nomogram for resected non-small cell neuroendocrine tumor: A population-based respective
Yong Liu1, Miaomiao Yang2, Zhaofei Pang3
1Institute of Oncology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, 250021, Shandong, China.
Background:
Pulmonary neuroendocrine tumors, including small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-small cell neuroendocrine tumor (NSCLC-NET), have obvious heterogeneity. The comparison between SCLC and NSCLC-NET, and prognostic nomogram of resected NSCLC-NET have not been performed.
Methods:
We retrieved data from SEER database. The incidence and prognostic factors were compared between SCLC and NSCLC-NET. By Cox regression, we constructed prognostic nomogram of resected NSCLC-NET. The nomogram was evaluated by ROC, calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) and compared with 8th TNM staging system. A Chinese cohort was used for external validation.
Results:
The age-adjusted incidence of SCLC declined after 1991 but the incidence of NSCLC-NET continuously rose. Patients with typical carcinoid had the best prognosis in both overall survival and lung cancer specific survival, followed by atypical carcinoid, large cell neuroendocrine tumor and SCLC after operation. Patients receiving sleeve resection in NSCLC-NET had longer survival but segmental resection was more recommended in SCLC. High-smoking index was associated with worse overall survival in both SCLC and NSCLC-NET. Histological subtype, age, surgery type, N, M stage and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors and used to construct prognostic nomogram of resected NSCLC-NET. The nomogram performed well with good discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness, which was validated by a Chinese cohort (1, 3, 5-year AUC: SEER cohort 0.873, 0.901, 0.875; Chinese cohort 0.867, 0.892, 0.874). Compared to the 8th staging system, the nomogram had higher C-index (0.87 vs 0.728, P < 0.001), clinical usefulness, increasing AUC value over time and improved 68%.
Conclusion:
The prognostic nomogram of resected NSCLC-NET performed better than the 8th TNM staging system. It may have certain value in risk stratification and survival prediction of patients with resected NSCLC-NET and help clinicians to take measures for high-risk patients in advance.
