Predictive role of blood-based indicators in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders

This study aimed to assess the predictive role of blood markers in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD).

Data from patients with NMOSD, multiple sclerosis (MS), and healthy individuals were retrospectively collected in a 1:1:1 ratio. The expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score was used to assess the severity of the NMOSD upon admission. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to distinguish NMOSD patients from healthy individuals, and active NMOSD from remitting NMOSD patients. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors that could be used to predict disease recurrence. Finally, Wilcoxon signed-rank test or matched-sample t-test was used to analyze the differences between the indicators in the remission and active phases in the same NMOSD patient.

Among the 54 NMOSD patients, neutrophil count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) (platelet × NLR) were significantly higher than those of MS patients and healthy individuals and positively correlated with the EDSS score of NMOSD patients at admission. PLR can be used to simultaneously distinguish between NMOSD patients in the active and remission phase. Eleven (20.4%) of the 54 patients had recurrence within 12 months. We found that monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) (AUC = 0.76, cut-off value = 0.34) could effectively predict NMOSD recurrence. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that a higher MLR at first admission was the only risk factor for recurrence (p = 0.027; OR = 1.173; 95% CI = 1.018-1.351). In patients in the relapsing phase, no significant changes in monocyte and lymphocyte count was observed from the first admission, whereas patients in remission had significantly higher levels than when they were first admitted.

High PLR is a characteristic marker of active NMOSD, while high MLR is a risk factor for disease recurrence. These inexpensive indicators should be widely used in the diagnosis, prognosis, and judgment of treatment efficacy in NMOSD.