Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Geographic Information Science

Background:

• Frequent urban floods pose significant threats to regional sustainable development.
• Understanding urban flood risk characteristics and predicting future risks under various land use scenarios is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban flood risk in Zhengzhou City from 2005 to 2020.
• To develop a robust method for predicting future urban flood risk probability under different land use scenarios.
• To provide theoretical support for optimizing land use to improve urban flood risk management.

Main Methods:

• Utilized random forest and multi-criteria decision analysis models for flood risk assessment.
• Employed a coupled Bayesian network and patch-generating land use simulation model for future flood risk prediction.
• Analyzed flood risk spatiotemporal patterns and trends over a 15-year period.

Main Results:

• Urban flood risk in Zhengzhou exhibited an upward trend between 2005 and 2020.
• The spatial distribution of flood risk was characterized by high risk in central areas and lower risk in surrounding areas.
• Land use patterns aligned with sustainable development scenarios demonstrated a greater capacity to mitigate flood risk.

Conclusions:

• The study highlights the increasing trend of urban flood risk in Zhengzhou.
• Sustainable land use planning is identified as a key strategy for reducing future flood risk.
• The proposed modeling approach offers a valuable tool for scientific land use optimization and enhanced urban flood risk management.