Novel hypoxia-related gene signature for predicting prognoses that correlate with the tumor immune microenvironment in NSCLC

Background: Intratumoral hypoxia is widely associated with the development of malignancy, treatment resistance, and worse prognoses. The global influence of hypoxia-related genes (HRGs) on prognostic significance, tumor microenvironment characteristics, and therapeutic response is unclear in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Method: RNA-seq and clinical data for NSCLC patients were derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, and a group of HRGs was obtained from the MSigDB. The differentially expressed HRGs were determined using the limma package; prognostic HRGs were identified via univariate Cox regression. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression, an optimized prognostic model consisting of nine HRGs was constructed. The prognostic model's capacity was evaluated by Kaplan‒Meier survival curve analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in the TCGA (training set) and GEO (validation set) cohorts. Moreover, a potential biological pathway and immune infiltration differences were explained. Results: A prognostic model containing nine HRGs (STC2, ALDOA, MIF, LDHA, EXT1, PGM2, ENO3, INHA, and RORA) was developed. NSCLC patients were separated into two risk categories according to the risk score generated by the hypoxia model. The model-based risk score had better predictive power than the clinicopathological method. Patients in the high-risk category had poor recurrence-free survival in the TCGA (HR: 1.426; 95% CI: 0.997-2.042; p = 0.046) and GEO (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.7-3.2; p < 0.0001) cohorts. The overall survival of the high-risk category was also inferior to that of the low-risk category in the TCGA (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5-2.2; p < 0.0001) and GEO (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.4-2.3; p < 0.0001) cohorts. Additionally, we discovered a notable distinction in the enrichment of immune-related pathways, immune cell abundance, and immune checkpoint gene expression between the two subcategories. Conclusion: The proposed 9-HRG signature is a promising indicator for predicting NSCLC patient prognosis and may be potentially applicable in checkpoint therapy efficiency prediction.