Tackling the Pangenome Dilemma Requires the Concerted Analysis of Multiple Population Genetic Processes

The pangenome is the set of all genes present in a prokaryotic population. Most pangenomes contain many accessory genes of low and intermediate frequencies. Different population genetics processes contribute to the shape of these pangenomes, namely selection and fitness-independent processes such as gene transfer, gene loss, and migration. However, their relative importance is unknown and highly debated. Here, we argue that the debate around prokaryotic pangenomes arose due to the imprecise application of population genetics models. Most importantly, two different processes of horizontal gene transfer act on prokaryotic populations, which are frequently confused, despite their fundamentally different behavior. Genes acquired from distantly related organisms (termed here acquiring gene transfer) are most comparable to mutation in nucleotide sequences. In contrast, gene gain within the population (termed here spreading gene transfer) has an effect on gene frequencies that is identical to the effect of positive selection on single genes. We thus show that selection and fitness-independent population genetic processes affecting pangenomes are indistinguishable at the level of single gene dynamics. Nevertheless, population genetics processes are fundamentally different when considering the joint distribution of all accessory genes across individuals of a population. We propose that, to understand to which degree the different processes shaped pangenome diversity, the development of comprehensive models and simulation tools is mandatory. Furthermore, we need to identify summary statistics and measurable features that can distinguish between the processes, where considering the joint distribution of accessory genes across individuals of a population will be particularly relevant.