Affordability of cigarettes in ten Southeastern European countries between 2008 and 2019

The empirical evidence shows that tobacco consumption is strongly associated with its affordability. The nominal growth in tobacco prices imposed by taxation should exceed or at least keep pace with nominal income growth, ensuring that tobacco products become less affordable over time. No analysis covering affordability issues in the Southeastern European (SEE) region has been conducted prior to this research.

The study aims to examine trends in cigarette affordability in ten selected SEE countries over the period 2008-2019 and the impact of affordability on the consumption of cigarettes. On the policy side, it aims to support conducting of more effective evidence-based policy of tobacco taxation.

The relative income price of cigarettes and the tobacco affordability index are used as affordability measures. The panel regression was run to estimate the impact of affordability measures and other covariates on cigarette consumption.

The affordability of cigarettes in the selected SEE countries has decreased on average but showed different patterns over the observed period. A decline in affordability has been more dynamic in Western Balkan (non-EU members) countries and low-and-middle-income countries within the SEE region. Econometric estimation confirms affordability as the main determinant of tobacco consumption, indicating that a decline in affordability considerably reduces tobacco consumption.

Despite the evidence, affordability is still widely ignored by SEE policymakers when designing national tobacco taxation policies. Policymakers should be aware of the risk that future increases in cigarette prices could lag behind real income growth, making tax policy less effective at reducing consumption. Reducing affordability should be the paramount consideration in designing effective tobacco taxation policies.