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Information flow dynamics between geopolitical risk and major asset returns
Zaghum Umar1,2, Ahmed Bossman3, Sun-Yong Choi4
1College of Business, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Geopolitical risk (GPR) impacts financial markets differently across time scales. While crude oil and Russian equity react oppositely in the short term, GPR information increases overall market risk in the medium to long term.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Financial Markets
- Geopolitics
Background:
- Geopolitical risk (GPR) significantly influences global financial markets.
- Understanding these information flows is crucial for market participants.
- The Russian-Ukrainian conflict serves as a critical case study.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify information flows between geopolitical risk and global financial assets.
- To analyze these dynamics across different time scales (short, medium, long term).
- To investigate the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on financial assets.
Main Methods:
- Utilized transfer entropy to measure information flow.
- Employed the Iterative Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (I-CEEMDAN) framework.
- Analyzed multi-term scale information dynamics.
Main Results:
- Short-term: Crude oil and Russian equity exhibit opposing responses to GPR.
- Medium and Long-term: GPR information demonstrably increases financial market risk.
- Long-term: Evidence supports the efficiency of financial asset markets.
Conclusions:
- GPR's impact on financial markets is time-dependent.
- Investors and policymakers must consider GPR's evolving influence.
- Market efficiency is observable on longer time horizons.
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