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On the gap between objective and perceived risks of COVID-19
Bernd Kowall1, Karl-Heinz Jöckel2, Fabian Standl2
1Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology (IMIBE), University Hospital Essen, Hufelandstr. 55, 45147, Essen, Germany. bernd.kowall@uk-essen.de.
Herz
|April 26, 2023
Summary
During the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, people greatly overestimated their personal risk of severe illness. Cognitive biases and media reporting amplified these perceived risks, highlighting a need for improved pandemic risk communication.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Cognitive Psychology
- Risk Communication
Background:
- Early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic saw significant public overestimation of personal infection risks.
- A German survey in spring 2020 revealed subjective risk probabilities far exceeding objective data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the causes behind the overestimation of SARS-CoV-2 risks.
- To propose strategies for achieving more realistic risk assessments in future pandemics.
Main Methods:
- Survey data from 5783 individuals on perceived likelihood of life-threatening SARS-CoV-2 illness.
- Analysis of pandemic characteristics, media reporting, and psychological heuristics.
Main Results:
- Average subjective probability of a life-threatening illness was 26%, a significant overestimation.
- New, uncontrollable, and involuntary risks, availability/anchor heuristics, and media's focus on individual cases contributed to inflated risk perception.
Conclusions:
- Qualitative pandemic attributes, media coverage focusing on individual fates, and cognitive biases like heuristics led to exaggerated risk perception.
- Future pandemic preparedness requires enhanced risk communication strategies, including clear data visualization and avoiding denominator neglect, to foster realistic public assessment.
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