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Prescriptive Analytics-Based SIRM Model for Predicting Covid-19 Outbreak.

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  • 1Faculty of Information Technology, Middle East University, Amman, 11831 Jordan.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a modified Susceptible-Immune-Infected-Recovered (SIRM) model to improve pandemic spread predictions. The enhanced SIRM model accurately forecasts pandemic behavior, aiding public health decisions.

Keywords:
Covid-19Impact of vaccine and medicineMathematical theory of SIR modelPandemic outbreak predictionSIR Model

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Predicting pandemic outbreaks like COVID-19 is crucial for saving lives and informing public health strategies.
  • Existing Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models are widely used but often require adaptation for specific pandemics.
  • The complexity and variants of SIR models make selecting the best fit for a given pandemic challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To enhance pandemic prediction by modifying the traditional SIR model.
  • To introduce a new Susceptible-Immune-Infected-Recovered (SIRM) model incorporating an immunity parameter.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of the SIRM model in predicting pandemic spread using real-world data.

Main Methods:

  • Modification of the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model.
  • Introduction of an 'Immune' compartment and an immunity ratio parameter into the SIRM model.
  • Simulation and analysis using published pandemic spread data.

Main Results:

  • The proposed Susceptible-Immune-Infected-Recovered (SIRM) model demonstrated enhanced predictive capabilities.
  • The SIRM model effectively incorporates factors related to vaccines and medicines, improving prediction accuracy.
  • Simulation results confirmed the appropriateness of the SIRM model for forecasting pandemic behavior.

Conclusions:

  • The SIRM model offers a more accurate approach to predicting pandemic dynamics compared to the traditional SIR model.
  • Incorporating immunity parameters significantly improves the model's ability to reflect real-world pandemic spread.
  • The SIRM model provides a valuable tool for public health authorities in managing and mitigating pandemics.