Predictive value of a positive endocervical curettage in diagnosis and treatment of CIN

Predictive values of endocervical curettage (ECC) in the investigation of patients with abnormal Pap-smears were calculated with regard to a second histological diagnosis and with regard to results of conservative treatment of CIN. By using the combined follow up data of all 290 patients with colposcopically directed biopsies and ECC, the predictive value of a positive ECC for invasive cancer in patients with satisfactory colposcopy was 2%, and for unsatisfactory colposcopy 15%. Predictive value of a negative ECC was 100% in patients with satisfactory colposcopy, and 98% for unsatisfactory colposcopy. It is concluded that ECC should be used routinely in the investigation of patients with abnormal Pap smears. However, a positive ECC is not considered an absolute contraindication to conservative treatment, provided that colposcopy is satisfactory, that there is no suspicion of invasive cancer, and that a strict follow-up scheme can be maintained during the first year.