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Prediction models for neutralization activity against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants: A cross-sectional study.

Atsushi Goto1,2, Kei Miyakawa3,4, Izumi Nakayama1

  • 1Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan.

Frontiers in Microbiology
|April 28, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 variants was significantly lower in vaccinated Japanese individuals compared to earlier SARS-CoV-2 strains. Prediction models for Omicron infection risk showed moderate ability, with the BA.1 model performing better.

Keywords:
COVID-19Omicron sub-lineageSARS-CoV-2neutralizing antibodyprediction model

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Immunology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Extensive COVID-19 vaccination campaigns have been implemented globally.
  • Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as Omicron (BA.1 and BA.2), pose a threat due to potential antibody escape.
  • Understanding neutralizing activity against these variants is crucial for public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the 50% neutralizing activity (NT50) against SARS-CoV-2 D614G, Delta, Omicron BA.1, and BA.2 variants.
  • To develop prediction models for assessing infection risk in the general Japanese population.
  • To compare the performance of prediction models for Omicron BA.1 and BA.2.

Main Methods:

  • A population-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in Yokohama City, Japan.
  • Samples from 1,277 participants were analyzed, with a focus on 123 individuals aged 20-74 who had received two vaccine doses.
  • Neutralizing activity (NT50) against SARS-CoV-2 variants and spike protein immunoglobulin G (SP-IgG) levels were measured.

Main Results:

  • Neutralizing activity was substantially lower against Omicron BA.1 (geometric mean NT50: 14.9) and BA.2 (12.9) compared to D614G (65.5) and Delta (34.3).
  • Prediction models for Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 showed moderate predictive ability.
  • The prediction model for Omicron BA.1 demonstrated superior performance compared to the BA.2 model in both initial analysis and validation.

Conclusions:

  • In a highly vaccinated Japanese population, neutralizing antibody activity against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 was significantly reduced.
  • The developed prediction models offer moderate utility for assessing Omicron infection risk.
  • The Omicron BA.1 prediction model exhibited better performance, highlighting potential differences in immune response or variant characteristics.