California's Public Safety Realignment Act and prisoner mortality

In 2011, a historic Supreme Court decision mandated that the state of California substantially reduce its prison population to alleviate overcrowding, which was deemed so severe as to preclude the provision of adequate healthcare. To comply, California passed the Public Safety Realignment Act (Assembly Bill [AB] 109), representing the largest ever court-ordered reduction of a prison population in U.S. history. AB109 was successful in reducing the state prison population; however, although the policy was precipitated by inadequate healthcare in state prisons, no studies have examined its effects on prisoner health. As other states grapple with overcrowded prisons and look to California's experience with this landmark policy, understanding how it may have impacted prisoner health is critical. We sought to evaluate the effects of AB109 on prison mortality and assess the extent to which policy-induced changes in the age distribution of prisoners may have contributed to these effects. To do so, we used prison mortality data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the California Deaths in Custody reporting program and prison population data from the National Corrections Reporting Program to examine changes in overall prison mortality, the age distribution of prisoners, and age-adjusted prison mortality in California relative to other states before and after the implementation of AB109. Following AB109, California prisons experienced an increase in overall mortality relative to other states that attenuated within three years. Over the same period, California experienced a greater upward shift in the age distribution of its prisoners relative to other states, suggesting that the state's increase in overall mortality may have been driven by this change in age distribution. Indeed, when accounting for this differential change in age distribution, mortality among California prisoners exhibited a greater reduction relative to other states in the third year after implementation. As other states seek to reduce their prison populations to address overcrowding, assessments of California's experience with AB109 should consider this potential improvement in age-adjusted mortality.