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Climate risk and financial systems: A nonlinear network connectedness analysis.

Xiaodan Mao1, Ping Wei2, Xiaohang Ren2

  • 1School of Economics & Management, Changsha University of Science &Technology, Changsha, 410076, China.

Journal of Environmental Management
|April 28, 2023
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Summary

Climate risk amplifies systemic financial risks by increasing interconnectedness across markets. This study reveals how climate change impacts financial stability and asset price volatility over time.

Keywords:
Climate changeClimate riskNetwork estimationSystemic riskVariance decompositionVector autoregression

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Economics
  • Financial Risk Management
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Climate change poses significant macro-financial risks.
  • Understanding the transmission of climate risk through financial systems is crucial for stability.
  • Existing research often overlooks the network effects of climate risk on systemic financial risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of climate risk on systemic financial risks using a network approach.
  • To quantify the increase in financial system connectedness due to climate-related events.
  • To identify key financial markets involved in transmitting and reacting to climate shocks.

Main Methods:

  • Network analysis to map financial system interconnectedness.
  • Event study methodology analyzing market responses to climate policy changes (e.g., US withdrawal from Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Conference).
  • Quantile regression to assess the time-varying relationship between climate risk and financial asset volatility.

Main Results:

  • Climate risk significantly increases systemic financial risk and risk co-movement across markets.
  • System-wide financial connectedness rose by 2.52% and 1.76% following major climate policy events.
  • Bond and stock markets act as primary shock transmitters, while forex and commodity markets are more sensitive to climate information.
  • Financial asset price vulnerability to climate risk fluctuates over time.

Conclusions:

  • Climate risk is a material driver of systemic financial risk.
  • Financial markets exhibit complex responses to climate-related information and policy shifts.
  • The study highlights the need for integrated climate and financial risk management strategies.