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Increased atmospheric opacity from clouds impacts crop yields. Optimal cloud cover boosts maize and soy yields by 0.4%, but pollution and climate change may decrease them.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural science
  • Atmospheric science
  • Climate science

Background:

  • Uncertainty exists regarding agricultural impacts of air pollution, climate change, and geoengineering due to complex effects on sunlight.
  • Sunlight quantity and quality are crucial for crop production, but are influenced by atmospheric conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically estimate how increased atmospheric opacity affects sunlight across the Earth.
  • To quantify the impact of altered sunlight on maize and soy yields in major agricultural regions.
  • To differentiate impacts from natural cloud variability versus pollution and climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized year-to-year variations in growing-season cloud optical thickness.
  • Developed nonlinear empirical models to estimate sunlight alteration by atmospheric opacity.
  • Analyzed yield data for maize and soy in the United States, Europe, Brazil, and China.

Main Results:

  • The relationship between sunlight changes and crop yields is consistently concave across regions and crops.
  • An extra day of optimal cloud cover increases maize and soy yields by 0.4%.
  • Global average maize and soy yields have decreased by 1% and 0.1% respectively due to air pollution's effect on sunlight.

Conclusions:

  • Changes in sunlight due to clouds significantly affect agricultural productivity.
  • Air pollution has already reduced global crop yields, with potential for further reductions from climate change.
  • Understanding these sunlight-yield dynamics is critical for predicting future agricultural output under environmental change.