Long-term life history predicts current gut microbiome in a population-based cohort study

Extensive scientific and clinical microbiome studies have explored contemporary variation and dynamics of the gut microbiome in human health and disease^1-3, yet the role of long-term life history effects has been underinvestigated. Here, we analyzed the current, quantitative microbiome composition in the older adult Bruneck Study cohort (Italians, Bruneck, n = 304 (male, 154; female, 150); age 65-98 years) with extensive clinical, demographic, lifestyle and nutritional data collected over the past 26 years⁴. Multivariate analysis of historical variables indicated that medication history, historical physical activity, past dietary habits and specific past laboratory blood parameters explain a significant fraction of current quantitative microbiome variation in older adults, enlarging the explanatory power of contemporary covariates by 33.4%. Prediction of current enterotype by a combination of past and contemporary host variables revealed good levels of predictability (area under the curve (AUC), 0.78-0.83), with Prevotella and dysbiotic Bacteroides 2 being the best predicted enterotypes. These findings demonstrate long-term life history effects on the microbiota and provide insights into lifestyle variables and their role in maintaining a healthy gut microbiota in later life.