Prediction of the Duration to Next Admission for an Acute Affective Episode in Patients with Bipolar I Disorder

Predicting disease relapse and early intervention could reduce symptom severity. We attempted to identify potential indicators that predict the duration to next admission for an acute affective episode in patients with bipolar I disorder.

We mathematically defined the duration to next psychiatric admission and performed single-variate regressions using historical data of 101 patients with bipolar I disorder to screen for potential variables for further multivariate regressions.

Age of onset, total psychiatric admissions, length of lithium use, and carbamazepine use during the psychiatric hospitalization contributed to the next psychiatric admission duration positively. The all-in-one found that hyperlipidemia during the psychiatric hospitalization demonstrated a negative contribution to the duration to next psychiatric admission; the last duration to psychiatric admission, lithium and carbamazepine uses during the psychiatric hospitalization, and heart rate on the discharge day positively contributed to the duration to next admission.

We identified essential variables that may predict the duration of bipolar I patients' next psychiatric admission. The correlation of a faster heartbeat and a normal lipid profile in delaying the next onset highlights the importance of managing these parameters when treating bipolar I disorder.