Two machine learning approaches for predicting cyanobacteria abundance in aquaculture ponds

Cyanobacteria blooms in aquaculture ponds harm the harvesting of aquatic animals and threaten human health. Therefore, it is crucial to identify key drivers and develop methods to predict cyanobacteria blooms in aquaculture water management. In this study, we analyzed monitoring data from 331 aquaculture ponds in central China and developed two machine learning models - the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and the random forest (RF) model - to predict cyanobacterial abundance by identifying the key drivers. Simulation results demonstrated that both machine learning models are feasible for predicting cyanobacterial abundance in aquaculture ponds. The LASSO model (R² = 0.918, MSE = 0.354) outperformed the RF model (R² = 0.798, MSE = 0.875) in predicting cyanobacteria abundance. Farmers with well-equipped aquaculture ponds that have abundant water monitoring data can use the nine environmental variables identified by the LASSO model as an operational solution to accurately predict cyanobacteria abundance. For crude ponds with limited monitoring data, the three environmental variables identified by the RF model provide a convenient solution for useful cyanobacteria prediction. Our findings revealed that chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total organic carbon (TOC) were the two most important predictors in both models, indicating that organic carbon concentration had a close relationship with cyanobacteria growth and should be considered a key metric in water monitoring and pond management of these aquaculture ponds. We suggest that monitoring of organic carbon coupled with phosphorus reduction in feed usage can be an effective management approach for cyanobacteria prevention and to maintain a healthy ecological state in aquaculture ponds.