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Variance effective population size is affected by census size in sub-structured populations.

Nils Ryman1, Linda Laikre1, Ola Hössjer2

  • 1Division of Population Genetics, Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

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|May 1, 2023
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Summary

The census size (Nc) impacts the local variance effective size (NeV) of metapopulations, not just genetic drift and migration. This finding helps explain variations in effective population size estimates and guides genetic management strategies.

Keywords:
Ne estimationmetapopulation effective sizemigrationsub-structured populationsvariance effective population size

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Area of Science:

  • Population Genetics
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Conservation Genetics

Background:

  • Effective population size (Ne) is crucial for understanding population dynamics and genetic diversity.
  • The temporal method, estimating variance effective size (NeV), is widely used but its accuracy in sub-structured populations is debated.
  • NeV is often used as a proxy for inbreeding effective size (NeI) in genetic management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of census size (Nc) on the variance effective size (NeV) of local subpopulations within a metapopulation.
  • To determine how migration rates (m) interact with Nc to affect NeV.
  • To clarify the relationship between local NeV, metapopulation NeV, and other effective size measures (NeI, NeLD).

Main Methods:

  • Derivation of explicit mathematical expressions for NeV under an island migration model.
  • Verification of analytical results using high-resolution computer simulations.
  • Comparison of local NeV with metapopulation NeV, NeI, and NeLD.

Main Results:

  • Local NeV is influenced by both migration rate (m) and census size (Nc), with the effect of Nc being most pronounced at high migration rates.
  • The relationship between NeV and m can be positive or negative depending on the isolated Ne and Nc.
  • Metapopulation NeV, NeI, and NeLD are independent of Nc, unlike local NeV.

Conclusions:

  • Census size (Nc) is a significant factor affecting local effective population size estimates (NeV) in sub-structured populations.
  • The findings offer a potential explanation for the wide variation in Ne/Nc ratios observed in empirical studies.
  • Metapopulation NeV should be prioritized over local NeV as a more reliable proxy for inbreeding effective size (NeI) in genetic management.